from the who-could-have-predicted-it? dept
New data from the UK’s age verification rollout provides hard evidence of what internet governance experts have been warning about for years: these laws don’t protect children—they systematically drive users from regulated, compliant platforms to unregulated, non-compliant ones while accomplishing nothing except creating a massive privacy surveillance apparatus.
The Washington Post has done the legwork that regulators apparently couldn’t be bothered with, analyzing traffic data from 90 major adult sites in the UK since their age verification requirements kicked in. The results are exactly what anyone with half a brain predicted:
As for the ones that actually went through complying with this poorly drafted law?
To recap: compliant sites hemorrhaged users while non-compliant sites experienced massive growth. This represents a fundamental failure of regulatory design—the law creates competitive advantages for the least responsible actors while punishing those attempting to follow the rules.
The non-compliant sites aren’t just passively benefiting—they’re actively instructing users in circumvention:
This represents the predictable endpoint of poorly designed internet regulation: Instead of creating a safer online environment, the law has systematically incentivized users to migrate toward less regulated, less safe alternatives.
None of this is surprising. Earlier this year we discussed a study about what happened after an age verification law went into effect in Louisiana, and the (limited) result suggested a similar shift in traffic from the big sites that complied with the law to the very sketchy sites that did not.
The adult industry and experts have been screaming about this exact scenario for years. A recent blog post from one adult content platform puts it bluntly:
This isn’t speculation anymore—it’s documented reality. That same blog post gave actual numbers showing that over a three day period testing age verification tech on their sites, that they were getting around only 10% of visitors willing to go through the process, and 90% going elsewhere:
The entire point of these laws is folly and they’re already doing real damage. There are literally millions of adult sites on the internet, plus social media, messaging apps, search engines, and peer-to-peer networks. Going after a handful of the most responsible, regulated sites just creates a competitive advantage for everyone else.
The WaPo story also highlights how this creates perverse incentives around compliance:
So the sites that try to follow the rules get hit with massive financial penalties for the privilege of losing 90% of their users to sketchier, fly-by-night competitors who ignore the law entirely.
What could possibly go wrong?
The age verification push has always been about looking like you’re “doing something” rather than actually solving problems. It’s pure regulatory theater. Now we have the data to prove it’s making things worse—driving users to less regulated sites while creating massive privacy risks for adults who just want to access legal content.
But hey, at least politicians get to pat themselves on the back for “protecting children” while the actual kids they’re supposedly protecting figure out how to use Tor browsers. Mission accomplished?
Cory Gardner, who spent a decade as a Republican senator, has been freshly announced as the CEO of the NCTA–The Internet & Television Association–the cable industry’s biggest lobbying organization. As the revolving door spins you might recall that Gardner is replacing Michael Powell, former FCC boss, whose stint at the agency has largely destroyed government oversight of the broken U.S. telecom sector.
“Cory brings the high level of strategic leadership and policy expertise that will serve our industry very well in the next chapter of evolution,” said Mark Greatrex, Chair of NCTA’s Board of Directors and President of Cox Communications. “His bipartisan approach, strategic relationships, and deep understanding of the policy landscape will continue to strengthen NCTA’s advocacy in Washington and support our commitment to delivering compelling services for consumers, businesses and communities.”
Republicans and telecoms have long been very close allies. But here’s a quick review of the kind of “strategic,” “deep understanding of the policy landscape” that collaboration has netted in just the last few years or so:
- Republicans destroyed a popular program that provided a $30 discount off of broadband access for poor people, claiming it was too expensive (follow up studies showed it more than paid for itself).
- Republicans illegally destroyed the Digital Equity Act, which attempted to ensure that broadband was deployed evenly to rural, poor, veteran, tribal, and minority families.
- Republicans killed net neutrality, popular rules that prevented giant telecom monopolies from abusing their market power to harm competitors and consumers.
- Republican courts and lawmakers effectively destroyed what’s left of FCC authority and federal consumer protection, allowing telecom giants to enjoy zero real oversight and avoid accountability for major privacy and other scandals.
- Republicans rewrote the 2021 infrastructure bill (which they voted against) to eliminate provisions ensuring taxpayer-funded broadband is affordable, while redirecting billions in undeserved subsidies to Elon Musk.
- Republicans killed an inquiry into the predatory nature of unnecessary, extremely unpopular broadband usage caps and overage fees.
- Republicans endlessly rubber stamped problematic mergers that documentably made U.S. broadband less reliable, more spotty, more expensive, and slower.
- Republicans subsequently hijacked the merger approval process, abusing it to threaten U.S. media and telecoms into being more racist and feckless in journalistic coverage of the administration, leveraging the FCC to engage in an historic attack on journalistic freedom and free speech.
- Republicans voted against (then took false credit for) ARPA and infrastructure bill legislation that’s driving billions in taxpayer broadband subsidies to under-served communities.
- Republicans attempted to kill a popular, bipartisan $8 billion program that brings affordable broadband to rural schools and libraries.
- Republicans destroyed longstanding, bipartisan, and popular media consolidation limits, resulting in a wave of media consolidation and the steady erosion of quality, diverse local news.
I’m sure I’m missing some “achievements.” This isn’t to take any credit away from Democrats, who are often either complicit in the gutting of corporate oversight (see Joe Manchin’s blockade of Gigi Sohn’s appointment to the FCC), or too feckless to meaningfully mount any resistance to the regulatory capture, corruption, and cronyism on proud display.
So yes, this is the sort of bold strategic vision you can expect from the ongoing close relationships between U.S. telecoms and the Republican party. It’s just one of many examples of the revolving door at work; former FCC boss Ajit Pai recently became the head of the wireless industry’s top lobbying group (the CTIA), replacing Meredith Attwell Baker, herself a former FCC Commissioner.
Gardner’s appointment comes amidst a wave of additional mergers and consolidation (Cox/Charter, Verizon/Frontier) that’s historically certain to make shoddy U.S. broadband even worse.