I have some exciting news to share before we get into this week’s newsletter.
Starting in January, I’ll join Duco Experts full-time as their Global Affairs Officer. I've been with Duco as an expert for two years, working with various tech companies, and I'm looking forward to focusing more on that sector going into the 2024 elections.
This means that I’ll end my contracts with the Bipartisan Policy Center, the International Republican Institute, and the Integrity Institute. I want to thank everyone at those institutions for everything over the last two and a half years.
I was not looking to join a company full-time as I've been loving being on my own and building Anchor Change. However, when Duco called to see if I'd be interested in joining, I saw it as an opportunity to turbo-charge the work I was already doing.
Anchor Change, the newsletter, is not going away, though! That would have been a deal breaker for me, and I will continue to write that. The Impossible Tradeoff's podcast will also continue in 2024. There will be some changes, but more on that in the new year.
I will also be splitting my time between DC and San Francisco. I can't wait to catch up with folks in the Bay Area, and if anyone has good leads on studio apartments to rent, please let me know.
Please support the curation and analysis I’m doing with this newsletter. As a paid subscriber, you make it possible for me to bring you in-depth analyses of the most pressing issues in tech and politics.
Guide to the 2024 Elections
SOURCE: The Economist
Did you know next year is a huge year of elections? 😆 Whether you are a long-time reader or a recent subscriber, you’ve heard me banging this drum for years - and it’s finally here.
As we close up 2023, I thought it might be helpful to share some resources to help you understand what is happening and who to follow for all the latest updates.
How many elections are there, exactly?
One of the most complicated things for me to try to explain to people is why it’s so hard to know exactly how many elections are happening. Different organizations take different approaches. Some count by institution, some by dates, some by election type. Some count the European Union election as one, and some say it’s 27 elections. Some include only national-level elections, some include local elections, and some do a mix.
To help better explain this, I recently pulled together folks from the Integrity Institute, International Foundation of Electoral Systems (IFES), International Republican Institute, National Democratic Institute, and Freedom House to compare notes. Ana Khizanishvili then helped me to put together this post that walks through these approaches with links to various resources.
Regardless of how you count it, we all agree it’s going to be a huge year.
PS: If you want to get a sense of when countries are going to elections beyond 2024, don’t forget about our election cycle tracker at Anchor Change.
What are the platforms doing?
A few platforms have put out specific posts about their plans for the 2024 elections, including:
- YouTube: Supporting the 2024 U.S. Elections
I’ll do a comparison chart in the new year, but if you want links to all the existing platform policies on all things politics/elections, I have this handy grid.
Everyone’s favorite question is if the companies are doing enough. I wrote about that earlier this Fall and how that will be impossible to know until after next year. That said, there are plenty of organizations putting out recommendations for what they would like to see.
Make sure, also, to keep an eye on Meta’s Oversight Board, where elections and the civic space are one of their seven strategic pillars, and they’ve already been ruling on cases around elections.
I think we can expect to see a lot of work on AI, providing people with authoritative information on where, when, and how to vote and work on foreign interference.
What should I know about the different elections?
First, for all my American readers, know that the United States is the exception versus the rule of how elections are run around the world. Most countries do not have the level of money spent on elections that the United States does, and most countries have a central election commission that handles the administration of the election, whereas in the United States, that is distributed across the states. Moreover, most countries do not share results until everything has been counted, versus the United States, where all of us political junkies watch Steve Kornacki and his map obsessively throughout Election night.
Second, countries have different structures of government. Some will be electing a president. Some a prime minister. Some vote only for a party versus an individual. Some countries will be having huge local elections - looking at you, Brazil, and Turkey - but won’t be voting for a national leader. For some, we know the date of the elections, and for others, like India, we don’t yet. There will undoubtedly be snap elections where a country not scheduled to go to the polls in 2024 - such as Israel, Canada, or Australia - could decide to go early.
In addition, different cultures and countries have different viewpoints on what it means to have a democracy. I’m not saying which is the correct viewpoint, but I was reading this piece from the Observer Research Foundation in India about the 2024 elections, and this line stood out to me: “Democracy is not a Western endowment and need not have a Western texture and tonality.” During my time at Facebook, I would also get pushback from non-Western countries about Freedom House’s or other Western organizations’s democracy ratings. Now, some of that is because people are mad about their rank, but I think it’s important to know that these tensions exist.
Finally, if you want a brief primer on the specifics of various elections next year, the Guardian has a great analysis, and don’t forget about my podcast, Impossible Tradeoffs, where we’ve done a deep dive into some of the major elections next year.
What should I be watching/remembering?
There are a lot of people with opinions about what you should be worried about, and it can get very overwhelming. This is why my mantra next year is to Panic Responsibly. Here are five things to keep an eye on:
- Trust in the election process: This is the thing that I think matters the most out of everything. People need to trust the process of how votes are collected and counted, as well as the process for appeals and/or investigations if something is suspected to have gone wrong. Trust in this process varies across countries, and in the United States, we need to make sure people not only trust the process in their own location, but understand and trust the processes in other states.
- Impact of the AI narrative vs AI itself: In his recent Year Ahead piece, Bill Gates guesses “that we are 18–24 months away from significant levels of AI use by the general population.” I agree with him that we’ll see AI used in elections - we already are - but I don’t think it will be at the scale yet that everyone imagines. Rather, it will be the narrative of what havoc AI could have that will have the bigger impact. I talked about this recently with Ricky Sutton and his Future Media substack. Be careful to separate out the signal from the noise and not get sucked into thinking everything might be fake.
- Newer platform approaches to elections: Companies like Meta, Google, and Microsoft have well-worn playbooks about what to do around elections. Newer ones like TikTok, Substack, Discord, Twitch, OpenAI, and others are building theirs for the first time for such major elections. Some, like X, Telegram, Truth Social, and others, are taking a pretty laissez-faire approach to content moderation. Just make sure we pay attention to them in addition to the legacy companies.
- Remember the global picture: I am nervous that the US election is going to suck up so much attention that we will take our eye off the ball in other places - especially the global south - where Russia and China have long been making inroads. Overall, we should make sure we are keeping an eye on and diligent in combating foreign interference.
- Everchanging regulatory environment: From the Digital Services Act in Europe to the Online Safety Bill in the United Kingdom to fake news laws in India and Indonesia, as well as a bunch of Supreme Court decisions that will come down in mid-2024, we are in a whole new world for elections where for the first time we’ll have these laws being implemented for the first time.
Who should I be following for expert analysis and updates?
There are plenty of people who have hot takes about the elections - and especially what tech companies should do. They’re not all experts. A case in point is this piece by Eric Schmidt that comes from such a Western, privileged perspective that I, frankly, think some of the things he suggests (such as verifying humans or being able to source specific pieces of content) are so dangerous in many parts of the world where authoritarians would love that information to harass and intimidate opposition voices.
Here are some folks and publications I think you should follow:
- Politico EU’s Mark Scott’s Digital Bridge for all things European Union
- Rest of World - The go-to spot for global tech news
- Scroll.in for Indian political news
- Kyle Tharp and the FWIW newsletter tracking all things U.S. campaigns and digital
- Casey Newton and his Platformer Newsletter
- Alex Kantrowitz with Big Technology
- DFR Lab with the Atlantic Council
- Pivot with Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway
This list is in no way exhaustive. I almost deleted this section because I was worried about folks I missed, but I promise to publish a more exhaustive reading list in the new year.
I’m very anxious about 2024 - give me some hope!
I know things look really scary, and it’s even more scary that it’s hard to predict how so many different aspects of next year will play off of one another. That said, remember, there are still people at the platforms doing tremendous work in this space. You have even more people that used to work at tech companies that now work for government, civil society and other organizations to help us make sense of what is happening and hold these companies accountable.
Moreover, it is a good thing that we are talking about the downsides of technology like AI earlier than we did with social media. The answers are hard, so they won’t happen overnight, but at least the conversations are happening.
Also, while democracy will undoubtedly be put to the test in 2024, history shows that it has held up in uncertain times. You have election officials and many others who are steadfast in making sure that the integrity of the election is upheld. You have academics and researchers dedicated to continuing their work despite harassment and legal setbacks. There are a lot of really smart and dedicated people working around the globe. They’ll make mistakes, but they are very good at their jobs.
Finally, remember that you can have an impact. It starts with your own choices of your media diet, how you will be consuming news, double-checking questionable stories, and being conscious of your own behavior. You also must remember to vote. That is the most important choice you will make.
Please support the curation and analysis I’m doing with this newsletter. As a paid subscriber, you make it possible for me to bring you in-depth analyses of the most pressing issues in tech and politics.